Vick has been temporarily suspended from the NFL, but what will it cost for him to play again? 

The opening bid might be $22 million.  The Falcons want part of their money back basically for breach of contract.  They paid a number of signing bonuses to Vick and they want a little more than half of that back. (The Union has protected other bonuses.)

So if Vick pays $22 million back, that might put him in good enough NFL political favor with the Falcons and Goodell to allow him to come back some day to the NFL and end the indefinite suspension.

If is team of super negotiating lawyers do not do a good job this time, and he coughs up the $22 million, maybe he can even fast track his career back online next summer or the year after that. 

The NFL has sent a clear message to fans and players that their code of conduct is less important than NFL finances.  So if Vick can help his ‘team for life’ get some money back, maybe that will leave a door open for him to avoid a permanent ban or a permanent ban by default.

Is the cost benefit worth it to Vick?

Vick is obviously not the smartest person to consider a cost benefit decision or look at an opportunity cost.  After all, we are talking about the same person that gambled a $150 million career on dog fighting, killing and torture.  Maybe he skipped the finance and ethics classes in college.

Before the scandal he earned $5 – $7 million per year in the NFL.  He has damaged his own goods, so if we assume maybe that he could actually go to prison (or take time off with a bracelet around his leg) to work out and somehow become an even better quarterback as he ages and sits way out on the sidelines, he might be able to swing a $1-$3 million per year contract with bonuses tied heavily to performance and results.

At a rose colored glasses view of $3 million per year, Vick would have to work an additional 7-8 years to earn back $22 million and that doesn’t even consider time value of money.  If his super lawyers haggle the Falcons down to $10 million, he’d have to QB for 3-5 years for it to make sense.

Financially, that doesn’t really add up.  Anyone will tell you that a bird in the hand is better than an unknown contract rate for an unknown period of years in the future.  Vick would be better off fighting tooth and nail to keep the $22 million.  But if he fights it, he will most likely really piss off the Falcons and maybe the football commissioner.

But then again, if we consider the really odd world of salary cap strategies, could it actually be in the benefit of other teams to prevent the Falcons from getting $22 million back in their war chest?

Maybe some other team could afford to promise Vick a future contract as a backup QB or something for a low rate of $500k – $1.5 million with performance bonuses, IF he agrees to fight the Falcons in court and Jock block them from putting that $22 million back into recruiting circulation.

If it costs Vick, $5 million  in legal defense, he still keeps $17 million plus picks up a contract in 1-3 years at about $1 million per year.  Plays for 3-5 years, and brings in $5 million.  Putting him back at $22 million in wealth, which is far better than working 3-8 in the NFL just to break even from his loss in 2007.

Just Sack Him For Life

Even if Vick sits in Prison, he is still a defensive player in the NFL.  He still has leverage while he holds the Falcons $22 million hostage.  He’s not profiting from his crimes.  But he could still add value to any organization trying to oppose the Falcons.

The NFL Commissioner by only temporarily suspending Vick without requiring a payback of any of the funds Vick received for allegedly breaching his contract, is essentially choosing sides with all the teams against the Falcons.  The only fair thing to do for the Falcons is to either permanently Sack Vick for Life or Require Vick to repay those signing bonuses or to levy a massive fine against Vick, say ($500k for every team in the league for all the damage Vick has done to the NFL) or maybe all of the above.

Falcons want $22 million back from Vick | ajc.com

Vick’s wasted fortune of historic proportions Dogfighting’s cost: Salary, deals lost top $120 million | ajc.com